How to get ready for 2035

No, there's no typo in the title.

The thing is, I didn't want to write yet another newsletter about trends and forecasts for 2025.

So I decided to widen the view a bit, and try to line up facts, data and tendencies that will shape our relationship with energy not just for the coming year, but for the coming decade.

I've split them into three bands, corresponding to three stages on the way to a completed energy transition: high voltage phenomena, whose impact will be most visible immediately; medium voltage phenomena, significant changes that will establish themselves over 4–5 years; low voltage phenomena, which will transform the energy system deeply and become more visible over the long run.

It's a path, but it isn't a given: making it real will depend on our individual and collective choices. Because there's one thing these possible events have in common: they open up opportunities. They hand people the possibility not only of understanding the future of energy better, but also of acting to help transform it.

Have a good decade!

1. HIGH VOLTAGE (2025–2026)

Over the coming months it's realistic to expect a settling phase in the transition, with renewables advancing steadily alongside high price variability.

Pressure on prices and supply Uncertainty in the gas markets due to the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine, and expensive energy, continue to be felt. At the end of the year the agreement for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine expired.

The price increase in Italy for 2025 has already been announced, and should be around +20–30% on 2024 levels. On the other side of the Atlantic, the policy of protecting the fossil industry brought in with Trump 2.0 will increase the availability of LPG, causing further market instability and price swings.
The advance of renewables Over the next three years, the electricity consumption added each year will be roughly equivalent to that of the United Kingdom and Germany combined. As growth responds to rising demand and to uncertainty over gas and fossil fuel supply, the adoption of renewable sources — modular and scalable — keeps increasing and comes to cover an ever larger share of the energy mix for electricity generation (37% in 2026 against 30% in 2023).
Welcome, volatility Wider adoption of renewables also increases price volatility: since, as we know, the daily price is always set by the most expensive electricity, prices climb considerably when renewable availability is lower (no sun and no wind), while they fall to the point of going negative when wind and sun are more abundant. In Germany prices went from very high to close to zero within a few days, with an impact on neighbouring countries' markets too.

The price of electricity in Germany between 17:00 and 18:00 on 12 December 2024 was €936 per MWh, because of the Dunkelflaute (literally "dark doldrums"), a day of high atmospheric pressure with cloud and fog. A few days later, on 02.01.2025, thanks to a windy day, the price was €0.95 per MWh, and for several hours of the day the price was negative. Source: epexspot

Within two years, in France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, the hours in which the price of electricity was around zero went from 121 to 1250.

Volatility is here to stay, but our energy system will need time to adapt. When COVID arrived, the most immediate measures were creating new hospital beds; the vaccines came later.

The energy system's vaccine will be grid balancing mechanisms, decentralisation through low-emission dispatchable generation, storage systems, energy communities and Demand Response mechanisms — smart consumption enabled by AI. That's how volatility will stop being a problem and become part of the solution.

In short The symptoms of settling are geopolitical tensions, swinging prices and infrastructure still to be upgraded. It's time to understand that volatility will be the new normal and that we need to equip ourselves with technical and regulatory "antibodies".

2. MEDIUM VOLTAGE (2027–2031)

Over the medium term the transformation of the energy system becomes more marked, helped by the spread of technologies that are still emerging today, and which will make the first "cures" for volatility possible.

Antibodies against volatility Smart solutions for energy management grow, and so does Demand Side Flexibility (DSF), which lets households and companies acquire energy for free (or nearly), monetise the management of their own smart devices such as electric cars and air conditioning, and stabilise the grid. Contracts with dynamic tariffs spread, along with aggregators that let thousands of users buy and sell energy flexibly. New platforms powered by more mature AI agents are able to forecast supply and demand with high precision, reducing price shocks.
Next-generation nuclear The development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and fourth-generation reactors accelerates, above all in Europe and in some areas of the US. New regulatory measures make it possible to get past resistance and fear around adopting atomic energy.
Green buildings Upgrading the building stock gets a decisive push: NZEB (Near Zero Energy Building) construction and regulatory updates (on the model of the Green Homes Directive) establish themselves across the EU. Thanks to energy efficiency, integrated solar panels and heat pumps, energy demand falls and grid stability improves.

In short The volatility of the early transition is partly mitigated by technological "counterweights" (DSF, SMRs, efficient buildings). AI becomes crucial in harmonising supply and demand at scale. Geopolitical tensions and divisions remain, but the global tendency is to aim more and more at integrated solutions.

3. LOW VOLTAGE (2032–2035)

We're in the advanced phase of the transition, where the results of the choices made in the earlier phases become visible. Or where the delays, the hesitations and the choices not made come due.

The era of smart grids Electricity grids become self-healing: thanks to IoT sensors and neural networks they adapt in real time to swings in generation and consumption and compensate for local faults, reducing how often blackouts and service interruptions occur.
Ubiquitous AI The arrival of 5G and 6G (and the standards after them) allows low-latency control: AI continuously optimises electric vehicle charging, the use of home batteries, and the management of micro-grids. Every user becomes a prosumer, and P2P energy exchanges on certified digital platforms — including blockchain-based ones — become the norm.
Revolution in building and mobility Buildings made with advanced materials become capable of producing more energy than they consume, helped by integrated storage systems and charging points. Internal combustion cars no longer exist in Europe: the widespread reach of electric car sharing, evolved cycle mobility, and logistics on zero-emission vans and trucks radically changes the profile — and the sound — of cities.

In short By the end of the decade the results of the transition become tangible: grids are far more resilient, building and mobility are almost completely electrified (or run on clean alternatives).

2035 is the year the EU has set for the end of internal combustion car sales. So the horizon of our forecasts coincides with a symbolic watershed, the point at which the world of before — of which the car is an icon — becomes something completely different. The journey to get to that moment isn't simple, but at least we know the route.